07/23/15: Polling for voters in local, national races

This op-ed appeared in The Virginian-Pilot on the date shown.

NOVEMBER 2015. March, May, June and November 2016.

These are the next regularly scheduled elections in Virginia, including primaries. For some voters, there could be more, with special elections necessitated by the results of the previous one.

The never-ending election calendar may be a political junkie’s dream, but it makes it difficult for the average voter to focus on just the next election. Meanwhile, jockeying by politicians and their advisers goes on outside of the public’s view.

Last week, Norfolk Sheriff Bob McCabe announced his intention to run for mayor. That election will be held in May. The announcement was no surprise to political observers in Norfolk; while he was the first, he almost certainly won’t be the last. Keep your powder dry, Norfolk.

Before the mayoral election, however, we have to look to March, when both major parties will be holding a primary. Polls released in the past few days highlight the intra-party matchups that are coming in November 2016. Such information is mostly meaningless until each party nominates a candidate — but more so since the lists of candidates are not yet complete. The only value of such polls is to show the relative strength of candidates within each party. Sorry, Jim — both Gilmore and Webb — but you’re unlikely to add to Virginia’s claim as the Mother of Presidents.

This November, all 140 seats in the General Assembly are on the ballot, although not all have opponents. That’s primarily a result of redistricting, the ultimate behind-the-scenes jockeying by the political class. Even in the districts with opposition, things have been relatively quiet. The candidates have used this time to raise money, get their organizations in place and do some polling.

Spend some time on the Virginia Public Access Project website, vpap.org, to see who is contributing to the candidates. If someone has knocked on your door or left a flyer, you have a sense of the candidate’s organization. But don’t expect to see much about the polling.

Polling in legislative contests differs from presidential surveys in two ways. First, the local polling is of likely voters — those who say they will vote in November. Presidential polling at this point is of registered voters, a much larger pool of people, and many will not vote in the November 2016 election.

Polling of likely voters is more accurate, which is why the polls for presidential campaigns shift to that model as the election gets closer.

The second difference is who pays for it. The vast majority of legislators’ polling is paid for by the campaign, or the campaign and another group such as the state party or a party caucus. These polls, unlike the presidential polls we’re seeing, are rarely released.

Only if you have been selected to participate do you even know the polling is being done. I’ve been polled twice in the past few days, perhaps because I’m a regular voter. Other people say they have never been polled.

Even though the results may never be released, being part of a poll gives participants a sense of what the campaigns are thinking, particularly early in the election season. Closer to the election, polling questions will shift to pure horserace queries.

Take the polling calls when they come. You might learn a few things.

I have. But now I’m wondering how McCabe and Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim fared in that poll I participated in last week.