08/10/11: The perpetual election season

This op-ed appeared in The Virginian-Pilot on the date shown.

THE GOOD THING about Virginia politics is that we have elections every year. The bad thing about Virginia politics is we have elections every year. Our state is a political junkie’s dream — and many voters’ nightmare.

With federal elections in even-numbered years and state elections in odd-numbered years, election season is always now.

Pollsters love Virginia. What happens here is often a proxy for what is to come. So it is no surprise that Virginians have been polled several times on the 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate contests.

In late July, Public Policy Polling surveyed Virginia and released its results over the last week. While it included presidential numbers — President Barack Obama leads all GOP challengers, including the as-yet-undeclared Texas Gov. Rick Perry — and the Senate primary numbers — George Allen is far outdistancing his four opponents — it was the 2013 gubernatorial matchups that caught my eye.

Virginia has this strange history of electing governors from the party opposite that of the president. This phenomena has remained true for more than 30 years — since the 1976 election of Democratic president Jimmy Carter and the 1977 election of Republican governor John Dalton.

No one is quite sure why this occurs. It could be that the electorate is different, that there is a dissatisfaction with the first year of a president’s term, or pure coincidence. But happen it does, most recently with the 2008 election of Obama and the 2009 election of Gov. Bob McDonnell.

So if Obama is re-elected — not a sure thing but certainly more than a possibility — Virginia is looking at a GOP governor in 2013. It is no secret that the current lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling, is running. Our headline-grabbing attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, also may be in the mix.

If you are saying “Bill who?” you aren’t alone. Although in his second term in the second highest state office in Virginia, Bolling is not a household name. Only 41 percent of Republican primary voters know him. Compare that to the 71 percent of that group who know Cuccinelli. In a head-to-head matchup, Cuccinelli leads Bolling 45 percent to 21 percent. Cuccinelli has not announced his intentions for 2013.

Where things get interesting is when the pollsters move beyond Republican primary voters to the general electorate. There, the lesser known Bolling leads possible 2013 Democratic contenders Terry McAuliffe and Tom Perriello by larger margins than does Cuccinelli, although both lead the two Democrats in the poll.

Regardless of who they choose, it is clear that the Republicans have a couple of strong candidates for governor in 2013.

Less certain is the Democratic candidate. At this point four years ago, both sides had at least two candidates jockeying for their party’s nomination.

For the Republicans, it was McDonnell and Bolling, who ultimately agreed to step aside, a move that no doubt has earned him some support within the party. For the Democrats, it was Brian Moran and eventual nominee Creigh Deeds. That the Democrats have no announced candidates yet speaks volumes about the depth of the party’s bench.

Of course, none of that may matter, depending on who is elected president in 2012.

And don’t forget that the entire General Assembly is up for election this November. Coming up in just a couple of weeks — Aug. 23 — is one primary election you’ve probably heard little about. That election is in the 90th House district, where Democratic incumbent Algie Howell is being challenged by Rick James.

With no GOP challenger announced — the parties have until primary day to nominate a candidate — this is the de facto election for this seat. If you live in the 90th, take some time to learn about the candidates and go vote.

With redistricting, the lines of this and all state House and Senate districts have been redrawn. To find out what district you reside in, visit the State Board of Elections website, www.sbe.virginia.gov.