12/05/12: Cuccinelli’s chances depend on turnout

This op-ed appeared in The Virginian-Pilot on the date shown.

IN 2008, Virginia voted for a Democratic president for the first time since 1964, helping to elect Barack Obama to his first term. Just one year later, Virginia elected Republican Bob McDonnell as governor. This wasn’t the first time: In every election since 1977, Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposite that of the president.

If history is a guide, Virginians, after voting for Obama this year, will vote for Ken Cuccinelli for governor next year.

There are many theories as to why Virginia has engaged in this schizophrenic voting behavior over the last 35 years.

One is that after the first year of a presidency, the bloom is off the rose, and there is dissatisfaction with the occupant of the White House.

The problem with that theory is that we continue the pattern even in the second terms of presidents: Ronald Reagan was elected to a second term in 1984, followed by Gerry Baliles’ election in 1985; Bill Clinton’s second term in 1996 gave us Jim Gilmore in 1997; George W. Bush in 2004 was followed by Tim Kaine in 2005.

The only thing that really comes close to explaining the phenomenon is that there is a different electorate in gubernatorial contest years than in presidential election years. For one thing, it’s significantly smaller.

In 1996, about 2.42 million voted in the presidential election, followed by 1.74 million in 1997, a decline of about 28 percent. In 2004, nearly 3.2 million votes cast for president; a little less than 2 million were cast in the contest a year later, a loss of about 38 percent.

In 2008, 74 percent of Virginia’s registered voters cast ballots, and 3.72 million voted for president. About 2 million ballots were cast in 2009, a dropoff of nearly 47 percent.

The smaller electorate is different in other ways, too. Much has been written about the composition of the electorate in last month’s presidential race, information based on exit polling. Using the Virginia data, the 2009 voters who elected McDonnell were older and whiter than those who made history in Virginia just a year earlier.

Voters under age 45 comprised just 25 percent of the electorate in 2009 compared to a whopping 51 percent in 2008. White voters were 78 percent of the electorate in 2009 but only 70 percent in 2008.

How many of the 3.85 million who voted last month will show up next November? At this point, I’d wager a third to half will not.

Despite all the efforts to register new voters, there has to be an equal effort to get people to vote more often than every four years. It is a disgrace that only 40 percent of Virginia’s registered voters bothered to cast a ballot in 2009.

As one of only two gubernatorial contests in the nation next year — and with the New Jersey race already looking like a blowout — there will be a lot of attention focused on Virginia. Whether we break with the 35-year-old tradition in 2013 depends on who shows up.

If the electorate looks more like presidential years, Cuccinelli might not get to the governor’s mansion after all.