11/10/11: Where the lines are drawn

This op-ed appeared in The Virginian-Pilot on the date shown.

TUESDAY’S elections allow us to look at the effects of redistricting on the General Assembly. The Republican-controlled House of Delegates drew its lines in such a way as to increase its majority by six seats, going from 59 seats to 65. The gain was historic: No more than four seats had ever changed hands in a single election prior to Tuesday.

The Senate lines were drawn by the Democratic majority there and tweaked after Gov. Bob McDonnell vetoed the original plan. Democrats netted a loss of two seats, if the current numbers hold, making the upper chamber of the legislature tied at 20 apiece. One could rightly argue that the Democrats were not nearly as efficient in drawing their lines as the Republicans were in drawing theirs.

Allowing the legislature to draw its own lines leaves the voters with few races that are competitive.

Most election experts define competitive as a race being decided by 10 points or less. In the 40-member Senate, only 26 seats were even contested. Of those, only seven ended up being competitive, including the race in the 1st Senate District, which pitted incumbent John Miller against Mickey Chohany. The final margin of victory for Miller was less than 3 percent, making it the fourth closest race in the state Senate.

As it turns out, that was the only race in which this newspaper’s editorial board issued an endorsement that was competitive. The other four contests — Senate districts 1 and 6, and House districts 21 and 64 — all resulted in margins greater than 10 percent.

In the 64th, Mr. Phantom, aka Republican Rick Morris, won by almost 11 points. Expect his campaign strategy of refusing to speak with the media, failing to attend candidate forums, and going directly to TV and mail to be adopted by other candidates in the future. As I said last week, success breeds imitation.

A looming battle, off the radar for most people the last few months, is congressional redistricting.

The plans put forth by the legislature earlier this year could not be reconciled. The House plan called for essentially maintaining the current congressional districts, composed of eight Republicans and three Democrats, with minor tweaks for population shifts. The Senate plan called for the creation of a second minority district, a shift that would likely increase Democrats to four seats, while reducing Republicans to seven.

But if the 20-20 tie in the Senate holds, the current Senate plan is dead. The only question is whether the House plan will be adjusted further. There is talk that it will be and that the seat most likely to be tweaked is the one in the 11th district. Long held by Republican Tom Davis, it is currently occupied by Democrat Gerry Connolly.

While much of the focus of politics is at the national level, the truth is that the real work takes place at the state level.

What we end up with in Washington is a direct result of those we elect in Virginia. As former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Tip O’Neill said, “All politics is local.”